So, if true, it depends on Hughes' second preferences and is basically wide open.
February 7, 2006 at 12:54 PM
Anonymous
said...
I crave your indulgence by reiterating my comments to 'Gambling on Libdems' earlier today:
"Presumably what Huhne actully wants is more sandal-wearers to drift from Ming to Hughes and then give Huhne their second preferences. So be on the lookout for attempts to engineer momentum from Ming back to Hughes on the basis of 'Ming isn't up to it after all; it's time for a younger man', benefitting Huhne in the run-off (as long as it isn't too successful)."
These figures are a classic example of the tactic. Ming is teetering, Hughes is recovering and Huhne is rock-solid and waiting patiently. "Only Huhne can win here. It's a straight choice" etc ad nauseam.
February 7, 2006 at 1:37 PM
Anonymous
said...
Most people on Mars have heard that joke by now.
With momentum and second preferences, and the "break for the challenger" factor, I'd bet on Huhne.
I don't think this is really that surprising. Huhne has fought by far the most aggressive campaign. Campbell's main campaign pitch seems to be: vote for me and you'll get Nick Clegg in four years' time.
Yeah just like you are well sarcastic and like to hide behind "anonymous"!
February 7, 2006 at 6:33 PM
Anonymous
said...
I agree that it is always good to think like a voter. Voters like voting, the point of voting is to change things. Making Ming the king isn't going to change very much. The point of much of the grumbling about CK was that "steady as she goes" just wasn't ok. Why have 22% of the vote when "over a quarter" has a much better ring to it on the day after the general election? They didn't go far enough and Ming isn't going to take them there. Mr Linford is right, if they elect Ming they're just going to have to do this thing over again until they get it right and this leadership contest has been proof that they can't mix it when under real scrutiny.
February 7, 2006 at 6:53 PM
Anonymous
said...
and we still don't know about Hughes and the married woman. Fascinating but I know that it is true. Perhaps she will now reveal her identity and kill off his chances for good.
February 7, 2006 at 8:56 PM
Anonymous
said...
The Huhne campaign has planted these 'unofficial' results on the website now.
February 7, 2006 at 10:19 PM
Anonymous
said...
The Hughes camp's own canvassing shows if he gets eliminated his supporters split more to Campbell than Huhne.
February 7, 2006 at 10:24 PM
Anonymous
said...
"The Hughes camp's own canvassing shows if he gets eliminated his supporters split more to Campbell than Huhne."
I can see the logic behind this. Hughes's second preferences will most probably split in the same proportion as Campbell-Huhne's' first preferences: 40-34 for the sake of argument. Anyone who claims otherwise should justify their theory. In most PR elections the outcome is the same as first-past-the-post, but with a spurious aura of enhanced legitimacy.
14 comments:
So, if true, it depends on Hughes' second preferences and is basically wide open.
I crave your indulgence by reiterating my comments to 'Gambling on Libdems' earlier today:
"Presumably what Huhne actully wants is more sandal-wearers to drift from Ming to Hughes and then give Huhne their second preferences. So be on the lookout for attempts to engineer momentum from Ming back to Hughes on the basis of 'Ming isn't up to it after all; it's time for a younger man', benefitting Huhne in the run-off (as long as it isn't too successful)."
These figures are a classic example of the tactic. Ming is teetering, Hughes is recovering and Huhne is rock-solid and waiting patiently. "Only Huhne can win here. It's a straight choice" etc ad nauseam.
Most people on Mars have heard that joke by now.
With momentum and second preferences, and the "break for the challenger" factor, I'd bet on Huhne.
Yep. It's in the bag for Huhne.
no chance of simon hughes coming from behind?
I don't think this is really that surprising. Huhne has fought by far the most aggressive campaign. Campbell's main campaign pitch seems to be: vote for me and you'll get Nick Clegg in four years' time.
I sincerely hope that SH doesn't come from behind, that would have me VERY worried indeed!!!!!
I geddit! Brilliant comment mate!!! You're well sharp!!!!!!
Yeah just like you are well sarcastic and like to hide behind "anonymous"!
I agree that it is always good to think like a voter. Voters like voting, the point of voting is to change things. Making Ming the king isn't going to change very much. The point of much of the grumbling about CK was that "steady as she goes" just wasn't ok. Why have 22% of the vote when "over a quarter" has a much better ring to it on the day after the general election? They didn't go far enough and Ming isn't going to take them there. Mr Linford is right, if they elect Ming they're just going to have to do this thing over again until they get it right and this leadership contest has been proof that they can't mix it when under real scrutiny.
and we still don't know about Hughes and the married woman. Fascinating but I know that it is true. Perhaps she will now reveal her identity and kill off his chances for good.
The Huhne campaign has planted these 'unofficial' results on the website now.
The Hughes camp's own canvassing shows if he gets eliminated his supporters split more to Campbell than Huhne.
"The Hughes camp's own canvassing shows if he gets eliminated his supporters split more to Campbell than Huhne."
I can see the logic behind this. Hughes's second preferences will most probably split in the same proportion as Campbell-Huhne's' first preferences: 40-34 for the sake of argument. Anyone who claims otherwise should justify their theory. In most PR elections the outcome is the same as first-past-the-post, but with a spurious aura of enhanced legitimacy.